Syria-EU Bilateral Trade Relation : An empirical analysis of the changes in export demand between 2006 and 2009

Sammanfattning: This study explores the impact of economic downturn in the EU-27 on Syrian trade and the sensitivity of oil and petroleum products to this downturn. This is carried out using a derivation of the gravity model to determine the export demand. Syrian export with its top 30 trading partners as well as the EU-27 are taken into consideration along with various other trade determinants when measuring the changes in total export volume. The study finds that EU-27 is an important source of demand for Syria, but a downturn in the EU economy will not necessarily have a detrimental effect on Syrian economy. On the other hand, oil plays a far more important role on the country’s exports and its demand is less sensitive to economic fluctuations.