Bitcoin a favourable instrument for diversification? : A quantitative study on the relations between Bitcoin and global stock markets

Sammanfattning: Bitcoin is a peer to peer (p2p) payment cash system and an unregulated digital currency that is primarily designed and developed in 2008 without tender legal status. Bitcoin is so-called cryptocurrency because it uses the cryptographic function in order to secure the creation and transfer of money. During recent years, Bitcoin has been emerging as the well-known electronic currency and gaining popularity worldwide as well as caught the media attention in the area of volume trading. Therefore, Bitcoin will be a potential financial asset for investors due to its extraordinary returns. The purpose of this research is to find out how Bitcoin returns correlate with stock markets and to assess the risk that the electronic currency bears, to conclude whether Bitcoin is a favourable instrument for investors that want to diversify their portfolios. Therefore, daily data from 2013 to 2017 is used to measure correlations with major global stock markets and analyse in a regression to what extend Bitcoin is integrated into financial systems. In addition, Bitcoin’s risk has been measured by estimating value at risk, as well as the volatility and a regression analysis with explanatory variables has been performed to identify the driving factors of the unusually high volatility. Finally, the researchers constructed models to forecast expected returns to identify whether Bitcoin is rather a short or long term instrument. The researchers came to the conclusion that Bitcoin is a favourable instrument to diversify a portfolio as it correlates negatively with most of the analysed stock market indices and the research result showed that Bitcoin is not yet integrated into financial systems. It has however been paid attention to the new types of risk and the questionable image the electronic currency has as it is often used to support criminal activities. The fact that no authority, clearing house or central bank's involvement is present, creates uncertainty for many investors.