Identifying Optimal Throw-in Strategy in Football Using Logistic Regression

Sammanfattning: Set-pieces such as free-kicks and corners have been thoroughly examined in studies related to football analytics in recent years. However, little focus has been put on the most frequently occurring set-piece: the throw-in. This project aims to investigate how football teams can optimize their throw-in tactics in order to improve the chance of taking a successful throw-in. Two different definitions of what constitutes a successful throw-in are considered, firstly if the ball is kept in possession and secondly if a goal chance is created after the throw-in. The analysis is conducted using logistic regression, as this model comes with high interpretability, making it easier for players and coaches to gain direct insights from the results. A substantial focus is put on the investigation of the logistic regression assumptions, with the greatest emphasis being put on the linearity assumption. The results suggest that long throws directed towards the opposition’s goal are the most effective for creating goal-scoring opportunities from throw-ins taken in the attacking third of the pitch. However, if the throw-in is taken in the middle or defensive regions of the pitch, the results interestingly indicate that throwing the ball backwards leads to increased chance of scoring. When it comes to retaining the ball possession, the results suggest that throwing the ball backwards is an effective strategy regardless of the pitch position. Moreover, the project outlines how feature transformations can be used to improve the fitting of the logistic regression model. However, it turns out that the most significant improvement in accuracy of logistic regression occurs when incorporating additional relevant features into the model. In such case, the logistic regression model achieves a predictive power comparable to more advanced machine learning methods.