How can the Cost Competitiveness of an Electric Bus Contribute to a Bus Operator's Investment Decision?

Sammanfattning: The study explores how a bus operator can utilize cost-effectiveness when transitioning from conventional to electric buses. An operator with significant investments in traditional buses expects them to operate for several years to get the expected return. Consequently, it is not profitable to start purchasing new electric buses, but one must think strategically long before the complete transition. The study aimed to understand the driving parameters for transit buses to be cost-effective for a bus operator. Then analyzes how the cost differs when the parameters fluctuate in a particular direction to compare the total cost of ownership for an electric and conventional bus. Correspondingly, the study discussed the circumstances and the key stakeholders' roles in a successful transition. The result was that the essential factors for cost-effectiveness are annual distance, life expectancy, energy price development, maintenance cost increase due to high mileage, the price decrease of electric buses, and electricity price fluctuation. Some key findings were that electric buses require relatively large investments, but the operating cost is low. Electric buses are more profitable if the annual distance and life expectancy are high, and electric buses are already particularly competitive if the annual distance is above 70k km. A 5% decrease in electric buses' purchase price makes them more cost-effective than conventional buses. The conclusion was that there are many different stakeholders in public transport, and globally there are differences in the objective and degree of influence; whereas in Sweden, the most critical are the traffic committee, the bus operator, and the bus manufacturer. The traffic committee decides the ground rules for public transport; therefore, they are a crucial player with which the bus operator must align their strategy.