DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING: SUCCESS FACTORS AND FAILURE CAUSES : Comparative analysis of Egypt and Tunisia

Sammanfattning: The theme of this study will be the Arab Spring and democratization. The impact of the Arab Spring has, in one form or another, extended to almost all countries of the Arab region in the MENA. However, this paper will be limited to compare two countries, in particular, Tunisia and Egypt by analyzing their democratization and examining how two similar states achieved widely differing outcomes in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Tunisia and Egypt are both predominantly Muslim-majority, Arabic-speaking countries, and both of them were subject to authoritarian regimes (Ben Ali in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt) before the outbreak of the Arab Spring. After the first wave of uprisings, Tunisia made remarkable progress in the transition to democracy, but in Egypt, the situation altered when the army overthrew a democratically elected president, and then the country underwent a counter-revolution, bringing it back to square one (i.e. the yoke of tyranny). The four variables that this research will revolve around as an explanation and possible analysis of the secret of this difference in outcomes between these two countries are the role of the international and regional community, the position of the military and armed forces in the state, the role of religious political parties, and the effectiveness of civil society organizations across the country. After reviewing all four variables, the final result of the paper suggests that the military, religious, international, and civil society variables are the strongest indicators of the reason for the great difference in the democratic progress in both countries. This paper facilitates an understanding of democratization by identifying the critical factors in determining whether a nation's transition from dictatorship to democracy will be successful or not. Key Words: the Middle East and North Africa, Arab Spring, Democratization, Egypt, Tunisia.