Klimatinducerade fenologiförändringar och dess effekter i näringsväven

Sammanfattning: The climate affects animal populations through several processes. These processes includereproduction, phenology and the success of hunting. By influencing the phenology of species theclimate also affects the way species interact. If a climate-induced phenology change promotes abasal species to bud earlier in the spring for example, this will affect the links to other species inthe food web due to a time lag in the tropic levels above. This dependence, that a predator has tobeing synchronous to its prey, is called the match/mismatch hypothesis (MMH). Studies haveindicated that species higher up in the food web adapt slower than species lower in the food webwith shorter generation times (which creates a temporal mismatch).A climate-induced phenology change in basal species could therefore be expected to affect thedensities and extinction rates of species higher up in the food web.In this study a declining conversion efficiency for predators was used to model the effects ofclimate change on triangular food webs with three trophic levels. This was done by using ageneralized Lotka-Volterra model. The results indicate that, in a food web with three trophiclevels, the densities of herbivores and carnivores drops in response to an increased change ofclimate. The extinction rates of carnivores also increase rapidly in response to an increasedclimate change.