A Contingency Framework for Assessing the Commercial Potential of Utility-scale Agrivoltaics

Sammanfattning: Purpose - In the pursuit of renewable energy sources, solar photovoltaic (PV) is predicted to become the single biggest global source of energy by the year of 2027, part of a trilemma involving climate change, biodiversity and food security. Agrivoltaic (AV) systems, the co-location and potential symbiosis between agricultural activities and solar PV, has thereby arisen as a potential solution for dual land-use. The research within this area is novel, and scholars agree that there is a need for the conceptualization of utility-scale AV in general, and the commercialization process of such systems in particular. Thereby, the purpose of this study is to unravel the key factors, activities and stakeholder involvement in order to assess the commercial potential of utility-scale AV. By addressing research questions: RQ1. What are the key factors for assessing the commercial potential of utility-scale AV?, RQ2. Which activities are essential to address these factors? and RQ3. Who are the key stakeholders that need to be involved in these activities?, a contingency framework for the assessment process has been developed. Method - In order to fulfill the purpose of this study utility-scale AV was approached as a Technology Innovation System (TIS) where the solar energy actor Sunna Group AB (Sunna) enabled insight to the potential industry context of utility-scale AV. Respondents were sampled within the TIS, forming the prerequisites for this multiple case study. Empirical data were collected in three phases: 1) Exploratory, 2) Semi-structured and 3) Final workshop, resulting in 3 workshops and 17 interviews, analyzed by a thematic analysis.  Findings - The thematic analysis resulted in four main themes: 1) Socio-political factors, 2) Techno-economical factors, 3) Meso activities for commercialization and 4) Macro activities for commercialization, under which seven key factors, six overarching activities and the stakeholder involvement in these activities, were revealed. These further formed a contingency framework providing an overview of how these building blocks are interlinked.  Theoretical & practical implications - The resulting framework provides an overview and synthesizes the commercialization of utility-scale AV, bridging the gap between stakeholder involvement and the key factors for assessing the commercial potential. The practical implications of this study primarily involve the solar energy sector, yet deemed to be of value to all potential stakeholders within the ecosystem of AV. Limitations & future research - The limitations of this study includes the potential exclusion of stakeholders within the data collection process due to the complex stakeholder configuration of AV, as well as the geographical constraints limiting this study to the context of Sweden. Future research is encouraged within several fields of this novel research area, predominantly including stakeholder involvement, business model configuration and how to mobilize the synergy sought in technology development between the solar energy- and agricultural sector.