Interacting futures of the Swedish food system

Sammanfattning: Food systems are complex social-ecological systems. Currently, they are the source of large-scale health problems and environmental impacts, and there is widespread agreement that transformative change is needed. Scenarios are useful tools for directing such change, as they provide engaging future visions that work well with complex systems.  This thesis is a part of Mistra Food Futures, a platform for a sustainable transformation of the Swedish food system, where scenarios for Swedish food futures are being developed. The thesis purpose is to contribute to the scenario development by the use of systems mapping and semi-quantitative scenario modelling. The thesis builds on four scenario narratives previously developed by Mistra Food Futures researchers. During the thesis process, these scenario narratives were re-interpreted as Causal Loop Diagrams. The diagrams were then used as the basis for constructing a food system model in the form of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map. Simulations were run to investigate the conditions under which the scenarios could be reproduced by modelling. The modelling uncovered several system dynamics: the competition or shared interests of different types of agriculture; the system impacts of novel foods; the vulnerabilities of localised food systems; the importance of food culture; and the interactions of environmental policy with farming systems. Another finding was system attractors where scenarios mix, and these are presented as alternative scenarios. The thesis contributes to the scenario development by making relationships, system feedbacks, and drivers explicit by systems mapping, as well as providing a user-friendly model that can be used for further system exploration. The analysis of specific dynamics can be used to inform upcoming scenario iterations, and alternative scenarios can be used to maintain analytical depth when scenario interactions are discussed. The process also provides a demonstration of the use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in scenario modelling.