Gasoline prices effect on public transportation: A study of Chicago : A study of the cross-price elasticity between gasoline prices and public transportation in a metropolitan setting.

Sammanfattning: This thesis explores the cross-price elasticity of rail and bus usage with gasoline prices. This is done to see how the short-run cross price elasticity has changed and to see if the same long-run relationship can be seen in the long run as previous pooled models. It is done in order to investigate whether policies such as higher gasoline taxes may make consumers move from car usage towards public transportation. Historically the cross-price elasticity has been around 0.2 with a higher elasticity for rail than for buses. The relationship also seemed to be greater in the long run than short run. Investigating this long run cross price elasticity for modes of public transportation separately would give greater insight into how consumers behave when gasoline prices shift. An ARDL model was therefore used to investigate the long run coefficients of gasoline prices with rail usage and bus usage separately as well as the short run coefficients. No cointegration could be found in this model for the two different modes. The results of the short-run cross-price elasticity seemed to be greater for buses as a direct effect, while it was greater at first lag for rail usage. The cross-price elasticity was lower for the period than previous studies, indicating that the cross-price elasticity may have decreased. The reasons for this cannot be concluded, but theory may explain these differences by the availability in substitutes for the periods, or lower levels of gasoline prices in recent years. This thesis therefore suggests further studies that investigate how usage of rail affects the usage of buses in metropolitan areas, and how the attributes of a modes of public transportation may change the usage of another form of public transportation.