Lönsamhetsanalys av tekniker för utökad elproduktion i kraftvärme : Med hänsyn till elprisets variationer

Sammanfattning: This thesis aims to examine the viability of various techniques for increased electricity generation in CHP plants and the effect of electricity price fluctuations on the profitability.The techniques examined are fuel dryer, pellet production, methane production, combined methane- and pellet production, seasonal heating storages in caverns and pit heat storages and condensing tail. Using Excel and Matlab, the prerequisites for investment costs, revenues and expenses were calculated. What affects the price of electricity is a combination of economic and technological development, energy prices, economic structure, population changes and weather. Different scenarios for the electricity price were therefore examined. In the base case, the electricity price was given by the Nord Pool electricity price statistics of area three in 2011. Thereafter, WiMo was used to design the electricity scenarios for 2030, which was then applied to the data to obtain the viability of various scenarios. The techniques examined were found to give greater profits to the CHP plant by increasing and optimizing the production of electricity. Methane production and combined methane and pellet production showed good revenue. These investments, however, require large initial capital and are somewhat sensitive to political fluctuations. Fuel drying is essential to invest in the polygeneration techniques but is according to this study, a risky single investment. Seasonal heat storages show signs of becoming a good investment. However, the technology is new and relatively untested. According to this study an investment in a condensing tail is not recommended, since it exhibits non-viability in all cases.