Svensk avskräckning och trovärdighet : Hur påverkas det gemensamma budskapet av kriget i Ukraina?

Sammanfattning: One major challenge of credibility in a small state’s deterrence of a superpower lies in how the deterrence strategy is being communicated. If different leading actors within a state communicates different messages, credibility will be affected. This thesis examines the importance of communication in deterrence by studying how different actors in Sweden can be interpreted, using Stones theory of conventional deterrence, how concordant these actors are and how this concordance has been affected by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. This case study examines speeches made by the Swedish government, opposition, and armed forces before Russia’s illegal annexation of the Crimea peninsula and after Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine. The material is collected from the annual conference for defence- and security policy held in Sälen, 2014 and 2023. The results show that the concordance in the message has increased and that the unity between the three actors is noted especially.