Money, Money, Money.... Pocketbook Voting in Sweden

Sammanfattning: Using a new dataset with objective changes in personal income between two elections we explore potential pocketbook effects on voter behavior. In contrast to previous research, our study does not rely on subjective perceptions of changes in individuals' private economic situation. Using the new dataset we are able to track voters in two subsequent elections and look at changes in bloc choice and income. We apply two different theoretical frameworks: a classical punish-reward framework - the most common one in electoral research - and an income-based voter polarization framework. We find no evidence for retrospective pocketbook voting. Neither an increase nor a decrease in income will affect the probability of voting for or against the incumbent government. However, we find strongly significant results indicating that voters tend to switch political bloc in accordance with changes in their personal income. This is true for both increases and decreases in income. The results suggest that pocketbook effects do influence voter behavior to a certain degree.