Hur bra är bedömningar i kommunala risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser och handlingsplaner?

Sammanfattning: In order to manage risks at the municipal level, in Sweden, there is legal requirements to create a risk and vulnerability analysis and an action plan. The question that started this work is what is the quality of judgments made in these reports, eventually land on focusing on probability assignments, and if there is anything that can make them better. To answer this, it was necessary to collect reports and it was decided to collect from 14 different municipalities. Overall, the municipalities had relatively low Brier scores, a method that measures the accuracy of predictions, indicating that the assessments were well done. Regarding opportunities for improvement. The fact that only 9 out of 33 risk and vulnerability analyses were of such character that allowed a reader to both understand how often they predicted a negative scenario would occur and tell whether an event has occurred or not is definitely an area of improvement. What this work shows is that there is a way to move forward with this method to investigate and possibly improve assessments in the future.