On The Jackknife Averaging of Generalized Linear Models

Sammanfattning: Frequentist model averaging has started to grow in popularity, and it is considered a good alternative to model selection. It has recently been applied favourably to gen- eralized linear models, where it has mainly been purposed to aid the prediction of probabilities. The performance of averaging estimators has largely been compared to that of models selected using AIC or BIC, without much discussion of model screening. In this paper, we study the performance of model averaging in classification problems, and evaluate performances with reference to a single prediction model tuned using cross-validation. We discuss the concept of model screening and suggest two methods of constructing a candidate model set; averaging over the models that make up the LASSO regularization path, and the so called LASSO-GLM hybrid. By means of a Monte Carlo simulation study, we conclude that model averaging does not necessarily offer any improvement in classification rates. In terms of risk, however, we see that both methods of model screening are efficient, and their errors are more stable than those achieved by the cross-validated model of comparison.