Batteries and the Electrification of Heavy-Duty Transportation : Battery Development and its Impact on the Provision of Charging Infrastructure in Sweden

Sammanfattning: Due to legislative pressure on a global, European and Swedish level the heavy-duty transportation sector needs to drastically reduce its emissions. One potential pathway forward for the heavy-duty transportation sector is that of electrification, which would require novel infrastructure to be established in the form of stationary charging or dynamic charging through what is often called electric road systems (ERS). The aim of this thesis has been to investigate how developments in battery technology impacts the potential electrification of heavy-duty transportation in Sweden. The starting point is from the perspective of battery technology and the resulting impact that battery technology has on the provision of charging infrastructure. In order to analyse the relation between these parameters the market developments of lithium-ion batteries were explored and an empirical study of the likely stakeholders of an electrified heavy-duty transportation system was conducted. The study finds that battery technology has a substantial momentum and several stakeholders view the electrification of heavy-duty transportation as the most cost-efficient solution in the long-term. There is however a consensus that battery development has not yet progressed to a stage where the electrification of heavy-duty transportation is financially or technically viable. Developments in battery technology affect the prospects for stationary charging provision and ERS (i.e. dynamic charging) differently, with stationary charging being more dependent on positive developments. The relation between developments in battery technology and ERS is more complex as its deployment is not only dependent on market developments but is also highly dependent on decisive actions by policy makers. Developments in battery technology could however affect both alternatives positively in the long-term, as a sustained positive battery development will make fully electric heavy-duty trucks an attractive option for the market to pursue. Once a common belief in the electrification of heavy-duty transportation has been established the main issue described by stakeholders, ensuring a long-term positive business case, could therefore be achieved by both alternatives. The study concludes that for an electrification of heavy-duty transportation to be financially sustainable in the long-term, continued positive battery developments are a prerequisite.