From Non-Alignment to NATO : Examining the Effects of Crisis on Sweden’s Ontological Security and Identity following the Russian Invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022

Sammanfattning: Sweden’s policy of neutrality and non-alignment has long defined its collective identity and stance on formal alliances. And yet, a rapid shift in 2022, when Sweden applied for a NATO membership following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, marked a historical change in its foreign policies and identity. Here, a paradox lies in the fact that while similar invasions occurred in 2014 and 2022, only the latter led to Sweden’s NATO application. This raises questions of how two similar crises had completely different effects. A crisis can threaten a state’s identity and ontological security (OS) – its sense of security in its self-identity and relations with others. Although scholars suggest that crises likely trigger fundamental change in state behavior, empirical investigations on the “threshold” for change remain limited. Researchers in ontological security look at critical situations and OS, but they miss to look at what it is in the situation that makes a state ontologically insecure and impact its identity. Hence, this thesis aims to explore the scope conditions for a crisis to affect a state’s OS to the point of inducing an identity shift. Using qualitative content analysis to study Swedish government documents, this study identifies the crisis aspects urgency and threat to people’s lives to be most crucial for explaining the difference in ontological insecurity and thus the outcomes. The findings suggests that these aspects deserve to be further explored and that they are possibly the most crucial factors for explaining how and when crises affect OS and identity shifts.