Friends or Foes? Examining 10 years of U.S Intelligence assessments on the China threat, 2013-2023

Sammanfattning: This thesis examines how China has been portrayed in the Annual Threat Assessment reports of the U.S. intelligence community between 2013-2023. A qualitative document analysis is conducted on 9 publicly available threat assessment reports issued during this period. The theoretical framework applied is threat perception theory, which posits that a state’s perception of threats guides strategic policymaking. The analysis focuses on identifying recurrent themes, descriptions, and characterizations of China through qualitative coding of the relevant text. Preliminary results indicate shifts in both the tone and substance of China’s portrayal over time, reflective of changing threat perceptions within the intelligence community. Key external developments such as China’s modernization of their military and their actions in the South China Sea are discussed. Meanwhile, internal factors like leadership transitions and strategic priorities in the U.S. are considered for their influence. This research aims to contribute to the fields of intelligence studies and U.S-China relations by shedding light on the evolution of threat perceptions within the U.S intelligence community. The changing narrative on China revealed through a decade of assessments offers valuable insights into understanding the shifting dynamics in U.S- China relations.