'Nobody wants to get into the jungle' : Explaining strategy based on restrained offensive operations and peacekeeping effectiveness.

Sammanfattning: No study has so far documented the characteristics of a military strategy based on offensive operations and whether they influence the security situation in the areas in which they are launched. Yet, it seems extremely important to study because there is a growing trend in Peacekeeping Operations of becoming more robust in the use of force by applying this kind of military strategy. This study aims to develop a new theory to explain the short and long term effects of applying a military strategy based on offensive operations which are politically restrained in the use of force and asks to what extent it affects it. Deriving from war and peace research, this study argues that when a strategy based on restrained offensive operations is applied, it is likely that stability improves in the short term but deteriorates in the long term presenting a ‘V’ shape effect. This is because the political restriction on the use of force does not allow achieving a decisive victory. Using the method of structured focused comparison, most similar case, the suggested hypothesis is tested on two UN sectors belonging to the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The results show some support for the theorized relationship, although the ‘V’ shape was less pronounced than expected. Hence, further research is needed to refine the causal mechanism suggested. This study does not provide empirical evidence, neither should be interpreted that in order to make Peacekeeping Operations more effective it is necessary to conduct full-fledge offensive operations.