Klimatanpassning av södra Sveriges skogsbruk inför ett förändrat klimat

Sammanfattning: Increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have an extensive impact on Sweden's forests. These are an important natural resource, and they contribute with socially important functions such as ecosystem services and timber production. The purpose of the study is to synthesize existing knowledge about how climate change affects Swedish forests, which risks are increasing, and what forest management measures can be implemented to adapt to climate change. The results show that a higher average temperature, uneven rainfall patterns and more extreme weather can be expected. The growing variation of precipitation increases both flooding and drought in the forests. Together with longer vegetation periods, this increases various risks, such as increased storm damage, pest outbreaks and root rot. The cost of these risks is expected to increase cumulatively throughout this century. Active choices of management measures that an individual forest owner can implement are among many others, the following: adapted choice of tree species, reduced or no thinning, shorter rotations lengths and sparse cultivation. The results also suggest that there are further aspects to consider in this process. Biodiversity, value of recreation, a cost-effective process, location-specific measures, and the individual forest owner’s knowledge and perception on climate change and climate adaptation are all fundamental aspects. In addition, policy instruments, such as financial incentives and advice, play an important role in the development of climate adaptation in forestry. The conclusion is that climate adaptation of forestry must be normalized and implemented now, in order to avoid higher costs in the future forestry.