Scenarios of Wind Power Development Prospects for Belarus by 2020 within a World’s Context

Sammanfattning: The aim of the master’s work is to assess the wind-power development prospects andproceeding therefrom assume scenarios of the wind-power development in Belarus until 2020 reasoning from the situations and tendencies common to both the national and world powerindustry. In my master’s work I have referred to ХХI-century current problems: procuring energypreparedness of the Republic of Belarus and reducing the anthropogenic impact on thebiosphere and reducing impact on the climate. For Belarus characteristic is a variety ofenvironmental challenges. For instance, one of the most urgent problems is Chernobyldisaster aftermath which affected Belarus to a very great extent. In my opinion some of these global problems may be partially solved by way of usingalternative energy sources, specifically the wind-power engineering. Such a narrow enough notion as the prediction of the wind-power engineering development inBelarus is described in my work by way of so deep and wide analysis of issues dealing withthe wind-power engineering development and prediction: the encyclical analysis of the stateand development of the power industry in its entirety in Belarus and how to reach energypreparedness at the time when effects of the finance-and-economic crisis are currently addedto other negative factors. It has been done specially for the purpose of making such an accurate prediction as possiblehaving analyzed the whole range of interrelated problems. I pitched upon the prediction of the development of the wind-power engineering preciselyuntil 2020 since I’d like to be tied to the basic document: “the National Strategy ofSustainable Social-and-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for a Period until2020”. In my work I have analyzed a possibility and horizons of developing the power industry inBelarus based on sustainable development principles. I have proved a capability andprofitability of developing renewable energy sources in Belarus. And the main emphasis wason considering the wind-power engineering. For Belarusian conditions there has beenproposed an optimum alternative of the integrated approach to developing the wind-powerengineering, i.e. joint using the wind-power engineering with other renewable and exhaustibleenergy sources. In this manner there has been refuted an opinion generally held that the windpower engineering development in Belarus is prospectless. In so doing the author, prior to turning to a major issue of the work: the prospects ofdeveloping the wind-power engineering in the Republic of Belarus, has given an estimate ofworld reserves of fuel resources and drawn up the following conclusions: deposits of fossilfuels are depleting and, consequently, the cost of mining operations will grow. Due to the factthat the main extraction of power resources is shifted to extreme regions the cost of conveying energy products is growing. Belarus has to import deficient power resources. Recently the price for Russian energy products for Belarus has grown dramatically. I have also approached the issue of expediency of building an atomic power station in Belarus. The prospects and consequences of using unconventional renewable energy sources in theRepublic of Belarus (with no wind-power engineering) are considered in all their aspectsfollowed by a detailed consideration of the prospects of developing the wind-powerengineering in the Republic of Belarus. Based on the above data there have been proposed two scenarios of developing the wind power engineering in Belarus: Scenario 1 «Unsustainable» and Scenario 2, which I called «Middle way to sustainable energy engineering».