Hydrogen Pipeline Infrastructure Design for Germany in 2045

Sammanfattning: Germany’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2045 underscores the need for climate action, with hydrogen’s multiple uses in industry, transport, and energy offering a viable solution. Efficient retrofitting of the extensive natural gas pipeline network can enable hydrogen to be transported from supply to demand centers. The aim of this study is to develop a hydrogen pipeline network strategy for Germany in 2045 that is consistent with carbon neutrality goals while minimizing associated costs. Using a single-period deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) approach, the focus is on estimating peak-hour transport demand derived from the spatial distribution of demand and supply. This estimation is based on openly available data from the Germany Energy Agency (dena) pilot study on carbon neutrality. The methodology aims to allocate hydrogen energy flows along existing pipelines through a retrofitting approach. The base scenario is derived from the projected hydrogen demand and supply for a carbon-neutral Germany in 2045, as estimated in the dena pilot study. To explore different possibilities, a sensitivity analysis compares five different demand scenarios. Each scenario examines different hard-to-abate subsectors that have limited options for decarbonization. Evaluating the routes and utilization rates across the pipeline network provides insights into the feasibility, with certain routes, particularly those originating in the north, emerging as key. The majority of pipelines in the network have low utilization rates below 25% in peak hours, which may indicate economic infeasibility or the need for alternative transport strategies. In addition, a cost of avoided emissions analysis weighs scenario-specific emission reductions against network costs. Of particular note is the network connecting CHP plants and energy-intensive industries, which appears to strike an optimal balance in terms of costs of avoided emissions and utilization rate in peak hours. Nevertheless, the study does not consider physical flow calculations, so further validation is required in this respect. The potential of the methodology, however, liesin its ability to quickly assess different scenarios and provide valuable insights into economic, environmental, and social impacts.