Calibration of a 2D hydrodynamic model for flood inundation extent using aerial photographs : A case study of the Hallsberg flood event in 5-9 September 2015

Sammanfattning: Alteration of rainfall patterns is one major impact of climate change. Rainfall events with big precipitation volumes under short periods of time are predicted to become even more frequent in higher latitude regions, including Sweden. One characteristic example of such an intense rainfall occurred between the 5th and 6th of September 2015 in Hallsberg, a city in central Sweden, where approximately 105 mm of rain fell under 24 hours, causing severe flooding in the city. In order to be able to predict flood cases like the aforementioned one, hydrodynamic models are employed to simulate floods and investigate rainfall scenarios so that the competent authorities can take precaution measures. However, due to lack of calibration data most of flood models are not validated and are comprised of substantial uncertainty. This report aims to study the Hallsberg flood event in September 2015 by calibrating a hydrodynamic model using aerial photographs for the flood inundation extent. The utilized model is MIKE 21, which is a 2D overland flow model developed by DHI. Contrary to the common practice in flood studies where inclusion of the infiltration capacity is implemented with an arbitrary reduction of the rain volume, the infiltration module of MIKE 21, which is a new development in the model, was utilized. Apart from the inundation extent, the outputs were also evaluated for the water depth in two points based on a photograph captured from the streets of the affected area, the description of the course of events for the timing of flood’s culmination and the water volume on the pixels that were erroneously simulated as flooded. The results presented a high degree of agreement with the observations. The parameter of surface resistance, expressed as Manning’s “M”, was found to be of paramount importance with the suitable values for undeveloped areas being below 5. In addition, the culverts’ limited capacity played an important role in the flooding of the city and hence including them in the simulations is crucial. Finally, utilization of the infiltration module resulted in a higher accuracy of 8.3% although it can be considered more of an arbitrary deduction of water as some of the parameters used in it are not physically well justified.