Risk Assessment for Space Debris Collisions

Sammanfattning: The increasing reliance on space infrastructure and its rapid expansion necessitate the development and enhancement of tools for space debris and fragmentation research. Accurate prediction of the risks associated with satellite fragmentation requires comprehensive understanding of the dynamics involved. To address this need, the widely used NASA Standard Breakup Model (SBM) is employed in this thesis to predict fragment characteristics resulting from breakup events. Additionally, a novel method is introduced to determine the direction of these fragments, something not directly covered by the SBM. Furthermore, the principle of kinetic gas theory is applied to calculate the overall, long-term collision risk between debris and a predetermined satellite population. The results from this reveal the limitations of the SBM in accurately simulating fragmentations for certain satellite types. However, the newly implemented fragment directionality method aligns well with observed data, suggesting its potential for further research. Similarly, the risk model exhibits strong correspondence with ESA's MASTER, a model used for assessing collision risks with debris, with the deviations likely due to different impact velocity models used. Finally, the validated fragmentation and risk models are combined, and the combined model is used to analyse a real-world fragmentation event.