Towards the Use of Satellite Data in Security Policy-Related Prediction

Sammanfattning: Inadequate economic data makes it more difficult for its incorporation in security-policy related prediction and there is a need for alternative datasets. Satellite data, more specifically nighttime lights data, can be used as a proxy for the economy. In this project, the correlation between nighttime lights and the economy between 1992 and 2018 is explored for five countries in Africa: Nigeria, Libya, the Central African Republic, the Republic of the Congo and Ghana. Data from two different satellite series, DMSP-OLS and VIIRS-DNB are used, and the extracted datasets are calibrated for the differences or intercalibrated. There was found to be a high correlation for two of the countries, the Republic of the Congo and Ghana. The biggest improvement can be made by developing the intercalibration method. A pitfall of the method is that it is not generally applicable as unique circumstances seen for Nigeria show in the correlation results.