Svensk underrättelseinhämtning och organisationskultur under 1939/1940 : En studie av försvarsstabens fokus på sovjetisk styrkeuppbyggnad i Estland genom en kvalitativ text- och kulturanalys

Sammanfattning: This study is about a mapping of the Swedish Defense Staff's focus area for information gathering regarding the Soviet military capability, based on their military build-up in Estonia during the fall of 1939 and the spring of 1940. Relevance for this study is found in the research gap identified in previous research and intends to be able to produce a deeper understanding of the defense staff's view of the military-strategic significance of the Soviet Union's military build-up. This study also deals with the defense staff's need for information gathering and how they attacked and handled challenges. The material in this study consists of archives from the Defense Staff's intelligence department where documents have been analyzed through a qualitative text analysis using hermeneutics as a basis. The theoretical standpoint is based on a cultural analysis of military organizations, that is operationalized using two theoretical concepts. One is future orientation which measures the extent to which a military engages in future-oriented actions such as planning and investing in the future. The second is uncertainty avoidance and measures the extent to which a military relies on rules and procedures to reduce the unpredictability of future events. The conclusions drawn in this study shows that regarding the Soviet military capability the focus was primarily on studying the establishment of Soviet bases in Estonia, in particular the location of the bases. Observations and assessments were also carried out regarding its military strategic importance, such as a more favorable naval strategic position for the Red Fleet where the possibility of operations to certain areas of the Baltic Sea, including Sweden, seemed likely. The conclusion can also be drawn that, of all things, the attachés' continued intelligence gathering was of great importance to the Defense Staff. The interpretation of the material suggests that the defense staff had a culture with a high future orientation, and overall, also a high uncertainty avoidance.