Är EU:s tillväxt i fara? : En studie om hur den ökade äldreförsörjningskvoten har påverkat den ekonomiska tillväxten i EU år 1960-2020.

Sammanfattning: Aging populations in Europe is a fact and it will affect everything from welfare systems and consumption patterns to the wealth of whole countries. The life expectancy has increased at the same time as the birth rate has decreased which has led to the population growth to cease in many countries. This means that a smaller workforce needs to uphold the nation’s production and provide for the part of the population not working. This study aims to examine the interconnection between the old age dependency ratio and GDP growth in the EU. The question is answered by multiple regressions using panel data from 27 countries in the EU between the years 1960 to 2020. The results show that there is a negative correlation between the old age dependency ratio and GDP growth in the EU and this result is possibly generalisable. An increase of one unit in the old age dependency ratio causes a decrease in the GDP growth by ca. 0,26-0,32 percentage points. This is an effect of economic significance that will have noticeable consequences for the economies within the EU in the foreseeable future. However, this effect is not statistically significant if time fixed effects are included in the model which makes the connection between the old age dependency ratio and GDP growth in the EU questionable.