Servicing or Buying New? Estimating the Environmentally Optimal Time for Car Replacement in Sweden – an LCA Approach.

Sammanfattning: Purpose. Road transportation is one of the major sources of GHG emissions today. Technological improvements in fuel consumption, as well as the electrification of vehicles can reduce emissions from road transportation. This study aims to investigate the optimal time for vehicle replacement in Sweden for an ICEV to minimise GHG emissions. While many LCA studies compare the total emissions from ICEVs with BEVs and conduct a break-even analysis, little focus is dedicated to the implications of the results. Previous studies did not estimate the time of vehicle replacement at which GHG emissions are minimised. To represent the Swedish vehicle fleet, the optimal replacement time is estimated for a Volvo V70 (petrol, 2011 model), when replacing it with a Volvo V60 (petrol, 2020 model) (Scenario 1), correspondingly when replacing with a Polestar 2 (battery-electric, 2020 model) (Scenario 2). Methods. For the estimation of lifetime emissions resulting from the three vehicle models, a Life Cycle Analysis was conducted. The functional unit investigated was 200.000 km driven with the V70, the V60 and Polestar 2, assuming that the vehicles were operated in Sweden. The emission values are then used to model the vehicle replacement in each scenario and the results are analysed. Findings. The LCA study showed that the V70 emits 64,08 tCO2eq. over its total lifespan, the V60 46,48 tCO2eq., and the Polestar 2 29,05 tCO2eq. The study showed that there is not one optimal replacement time, but the optimal time for vehicle replacement, from a carbon emission point of view, is inherently linked to the total driven mileage and number of cars owned. However, the trend shows that the time of replacement in Scenario 1 should be close to the End-of-Life of the V70. For Scenario 2 it is beneficial to replace the V70 immediately.