A polycrisis of climate change, food insecurity, socioeconomic inequality, and conflict intensity? A statistical analysis of interrelated crises.

Sammanfattning: Along with escalating climate change impacts, aggravated hunger and malnutrition, and widening socioeconomic disparities, recent decades have also seen increased casualties during intrastate conflicts. The aim of this thesis is accordingly to investigate the interactions among climate vulnerability, food insecurity, and socioeconomic inequality and their effects on conflict intensity. The research problem was approached by conducting multiple linear regression analyses at the world and regional levels, including 84 countries and covering the 2002–2021 period. This thesis finds that both food insecurity and socioeconomic inequality have significantly affected the conflict intensity of intrastate conflicts at the world level. The statistical analysis demonstrates that these correlations are exacerbated when they interact with climate vulnerability. The regional analyses present more mixed results. The results are discussed in light of theories of greed versus grievance as well as environmental scarcity and conflict. I conclude that while grievances due to human insecurity and inequality have driven the intensification of civil wars, climate vulnerability stands to exacerbate these grievances. The thesis concludes that in a world facing mounting polycrises, understanding their interactions is vital in order to establish positive conditions and lasting peace.