Betalningar i krig : Hantering av risker med låg sannolikhet och höga konsekvenser

Sammanfattning: As of Russia's invasion of Ukraine we are now living in a time of full-scale war in Europe. This has ended a long period of relative peace and radically changed the security situation around the world. At the same time, the Swedish payment market has undergone a major shift in regards to cash versus digital payment. Today in Sweden, digital payments account for 96 percent of all payments, and these are made through private market actors. In response to the digitalization of the payment market, cash has been largely marginalized. Due to this coexistence, with a changed payment market and current security situation, this study aims to examine the risk management associated with payments during a potential invasion of Sweden, and the role of cash as a method of payment in wartime.  A fundamental principle assumed in this study is that the risks associated with payments in wartime are of the type Low Probability/High Consequence (LP/HC). These types of risks are particularly difficult to manage and there is thus reason to consider that the risk management of payments during an invasion may be insufficient. In this study we have constructed our own model, in order to analyze this issue, which includes three factors. These are lack of rationality, the public goods problem and hyperbolic discounting. The model aims to explain different problems and behaviors of decision-makers which may lead to inadequate risk management of LP/HC risks and thus deficient overall risk management of payments during an invasion. Throughout the study, we use the minimax-principle from game theory to further study the risk management of payments during an invasion as an LP/HC risk. In this qualitative study, eleven experts have been interviewed using a fictitious scenario of an invasion of Sweden. This functioned as the framework within which the experts then applied their insight to payments in war.  The results of the study show that the risk management of payments during an invasion has been overlooked and that lack of rationality, the public goods problem and hyperbolic discounting are all contributing factors to the problems we have identified. Further, the study defines that the payment system's lack of division of responsibilities and coordination, the unclear role of cash, as well as the cost issue and political game, are the determining factors regarding the lack of risk management around payments during an invasion. In conclusion, it is shown herein that cash does have a role to play during an invasion, but that extensive reformations must be made to increase the infrastructure around cash management.