Bolånetakets initiala och långsiktiga effekter

Sammanfattning: Background: The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority’s mortgage limitation, of mortgaging up to 85 percent of the market value of the real estate was introduced on the first of October 2010. The aim of the recommendation is to prevent a detrimental development of the market for mortgages while at the same time creating incentives for the consumers to limit the debt level. The mortgage limitation is a recently adopted recommendation and few studies have made a thorough analysis of its effects, hence it is an interesting topic to study. Aim: The aim of this study is to analyze the initial effects of the mortgage limitation for consumers, banks and estate agencies. Furthermore, the study aims to evaluate drivers of consumer debt levels and conclude whether the mortgage limitation will result in lower debt levels for consumers. Completion: The study is based on interviews with respondents from banks and with respondents from estate agencies to enlighten the initial and long term effects of the mortgage limitation. In addition, an econometric model of demand is estimated to analyze if the mortgage limitation will result in lower consumer debt levels. Conclusion: The study shows that the initial effects of the mortgage limitation for consumers have not been what the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority had expected. Neither has the lending with unsecured loans increased nor has the presence of guarantors increased to any significant extent. Amortization is now being made on high loan to value ratios but the study states that the main reason for that is the Swedish Banking Associations requirement of amortization. The study also shows that banks and estate agencies have not been affected to any significant degree. There are tendencies that confirm that the mortgage limitation may have caused side effects. The study states that the consumer debt level is mainly driven by income, housing prices and psychological insecurity regarding the future economy. The study shows that the signaling value of the mortgage limitation may contribute to lower consumer debt levels since it creates uncertainty on the market, thus making consumers more cautious in their mortgage decisions.