The Yield Gap : A comprehensive study of the yield spread between prime office yields and five-year swap rates in some of Europe’s most prominent commercial real estate markets

Sammanfattning: Global economies are currently in a tumultuous time with high economic distress, inflation, and volatile interest rate markets. Alongside the increased interest rate climate, yield returns throughout property sectors adjust to compensate for the increased risk. Investors therefore begin to question the relationship between financing costs and property yield levels, in other words, the yield gap. When discussing the yield gap among real estate professionals, the relationship that mainly signifies the one between prime office yields and five-year swap rates. Previous research on similar topics have investigated the relationship between property yields and government bonds. Questions raised currently are, for example, how long it will take for property yield levels to fully adjust to increased financing costs. The thesis therefore aims to analyze the spread between prime office yields and five-year swap rates in Sweden, the UK, France, Germany, and Spain. Further, the paper also aims to explain how borrowers and lenders are impacted by the development of the yield gap and if the spread can be used as a leading indicator for the development of the turnover. The methods used to answer the aims constitute visual analyses, regression analyses and semi-structured interviews. A main finding from the report shows that Sweden’s prime office yield is rather unreactive in response to increasing swap rates. The lag time for when yield levels will respond to changes in swap rates for Sweden is expected to lie between twelve to 36 months. In at least 12 months, the prime office yield for Sweden is expected to be fully adjusted.