Trade with China and Rising Mortality in the United States

Sammanfattning: I analyze the effect of a large exogenous trade shock on mortality in the United States between 2002 and 2012. Following the example of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), I construct a variable that captures the difference in exposure to import competition stemming from differences in initial manufacturing employment structures. I avoid endogeneity issues by instrumenting US commuting zones’ exposure to Chinese import penetration with an equivalent measure of import penetration to eight comparable developed countries. My findings complement existing literature: a large trade shock, in the form of increased trade with China, had a significant positive effect on mortality in the United States. I found that a $1000 increase in Chinese import penetration is associated with an increase in mortality by 1.076 per 100,000 persons over the long run and by 0.545 per 100,000 persons over the 10-year short-run. The effect is statistically significant for White non-Hispanic Americans and is insignificant for individuals of other races and of Hispanic origin. Contrary to the findings of other papers, the effect is greater for women of all races and also greater for White non-Hispanic women than for White non-Hispanic men.