A Powerful Future : Modelling European power demand until 2050

Sammanfattning: A Powerful Future explores the future electricity demand in Europe until 2050 for the industry, transport, and residential sector. This is done through a bottom-up model capturing the essential parameters for each sector combined with statistics on electricity and energy demand giving two scenarios on future power demand in Europe – High Electrification and Baseline. The electricity demand is built in Excel’s data modelling tool, at the request of Sweco. One aspect of this project also involves challenges when constructing this tool. The resolution will be yearly and economic aspects and feasibility of the electrification have not been investigated in this project. The focus of the project is to capture the most essential activities and technologies affecting the power demand in Europe to be included in the model, and less focus on analyzing each country. The annual results until 2050 for both scenarios show a significant increase in power demand in Europe due to the electrification of the industry and transport sector. The transport sector will reach approximately 550 TWh in Baseline and 600 TWh in High Electrification, while the industrial power demand will reach ~2 000/~2 700 TWh in the Baseline -/High Electrification scenario. These two sectors will account for the biggest increase in power demand while households will have a small increase in power demand. The total modeled annual electricity demand 2050 will be ~5 000/~5 900 TWh in the Baseline -/High Electrification scenario and will be approximately a doubling of the electricity demand 2021.