Dragkampen mellan kontor och bostäder i Stockholm

Sammanfattning: In recent years, Stockholm has shown a large rent increases in the office market simultaneously as the housing market has cooled off. Although Sweden is well measured in several areas such as vacancy and GDP, other cities that also produced significant GDP growth and low vacancy rates have not shown as much rental growth as Stockholm. This study examines if and how the housing market has affected office rents in Stockholm. If one of the segments, the housing market, has an advance that makes it more profitable to develop houses over another type, there would be a construction boom. The effects of this imbalance would eventually lead to price increases in the office segment which would make it grow until it is as profitable to build offices as housing. It could explain that the housing volumes have increased 26 % since 2015 and 200 % since to 2012. However, housing prices have dropped in the last six months, while office rents increased. By the time developers realize they’ve entered into an oversaturated market, it’s often too late. For example, the Wallenstam project "Orangeriet” is converted from condominiums to rental apartments, which is a loss for the company. The newly produced dwellings are more expensive, more than the inhabitant’s demand, which leads to price reductions. Over and undershooting in production and prices are characteristic in the real estate market. The overproduction that exists in Stockholm is often due to the increased need for housing. For example, while the recent influx of refugees are in need of housing, they cannot afford newly produced, expensive homes, which creates additional uncertainty in the market. This study has shown that Stockholm is a unique market where there have been extraordinarily unique events in the past year that create uncertainty in the market. The housing shortage is still high, till but needs are not always the same as economic demand. The rent regulation is far from gone and according to analyses, investment support from the government for rental houses in big cities, where they are meant to work, do not help. The real estate industry is extremely regulated, prices are falling on the housing market and office rents are increasing in record time, while the real estate industry is more regulated than ever before. A price ratio between homes and offices shows that for the first time since 2007, it is more profitable for developers to build offices than homes.