Russia’s Geopolitics in Southeast Europe: Energy security and pipeline politics

Sammanfattning: This thesis analyzes Russia’s geopolitical objectives in Southeast Europe by focusing on natural gas pipelines and energy security. Natural gas is a crucial soft power asset that Russia utilizes to maintain its sphere of influence in the region. When defining Southeast Europe, this thesis focuses on the following countries of the region: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The empirically driven research explores Russia’s role as the main natural gas supplier in Southeast Europe and the geostrategic implications of the region’s potential to become a vital entry point into Europe for Russian natural gas. This thesis applies the theory of defensive realism to the study of gas-infrastructure developments and to the impact of new pipelines on Russia’s dominant energy role within the region. Further on, Russia faces various challenges to its control of the regional gas market, including European Union’s energy policies, LNG from the United States, natural gas from Azerbaijan, and other complex factors that play into the regional geopolitical and energy arena.   With the analysis of the empirical data, this thesis assesses how each of the Southeast European countries respond to new gas-infrastructure projects and to Russia’s effort to leverage its gas assets. These developments, including Russia’s gas projects, could provide opportunities for positive, regional cooperation, while creating commercial value by transforming this region into an important natural gas hub.