FUELING CONFLICTS IN NORTHEAST ASIA : AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENERGY AND CONFLICT

Sammanfattning: The Purpose of this study was to determine what affects, if any exist, crude oil and natural gas supply and demand has on the international relations of Northeast Asia. This was done by answering the research question: does the need to for energy security override the desire to maintain the status quo regarding national policy toward controversial issues facing Northeast Asia. The study uses the territorial dispute over the maritime boundary between China and Japan in the East China Sea, the controversies of the Sakhalin oil and gas development projects and the East Siberia Pipeline in the Russian Far East, and the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula as case studies for analysis. By statistically correlating empirical data on crude oil and natural gas pricing, consumption, and production to quantitative data derived from qualitative data regarding the chosen case studies by use of an original framework, the study finds that there is no conclusive relationship to support a statistical connection. The study also uses qualitative analysis compare the empirical data on crude oil and natural gas pricing, consumption, and production to qualitative data regarding the chosen case studies and finds that there likely are some correlations between them, but that they are not a driving force for political policy regarding the chosen cases.