Nyproducerade bostäders samband med prisutvecklingen på den befintliga marknaden

Detta är en Uppsats för yrkesexamina på avancerad nivå från Lunds universitet/Fastighetsvetenskap

Sammanfattning: In recent years, there has been an increase in new housing, which may imply a large price risk in the Swedish housing market. When investigating the new housing and price levels in different municipalities, the developments are different. The municipalities do not follow the same pattern. In this thesis, the relation between new housing and development in price is studied, as well as how new housing influences the development in price in the existing small house market. Theories are described in microeconomics, real estate economics and regression analysis. Basically, there are theories in supply and demand that are used to explain the market. Due to the special nature of real estate there are certain restrictions and adaptation requirements for the real estate market. A useful tool when studying the real estate market is the 4Q model. A discussion is being held about how new housing and price developments can affect each other based on the work question: Does differences in new housing give a measurable effect on price developments in the existing market in the municipalities? The discussion leads to a model specification. Two regression models are created with the development in price as the dependent variable and addition of small houses as an independent variable. Additional independent variables are added to investigate whether these explain price developments better. Observations are made by 100 municipalities for ten years. The models are analysed by studying the correlation between the variables and each variables significance in the models. To check that the values of the variables in the models are consistent with the underlying theory, a study of the coefficients is also made. The correlation between price developments and the addition of small houses is low, which indicates that the development in price cannot be explained solely by the variable for the addition of small houses. In the regression models, the variables for the addition of single-family houses are significant. The work concludes with the conclusion that there is a measurable effect between new production and price developments in the existing market. The municipalities with high construction rates have lower price developments.

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