Light, temperature and competition : understanding the causes for climate-driven regime shifts in arctic marine benthos

Sammanfattning: In the Arctic, shallow sea-floor communities have been documented to shift abruptly from an invertebrate-dominated state to a state with high macroalgal abundance. Climate warming, resulting in increased water temperatures and decreased sea ice cover, could trigger such regime shifts in benthic ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms are not clear. To gain a better understanding, a mechanistic model of algal growth and interspecific competition was applied in two marine ecosystems in northwestern Svalbard. Unravelling the effects of light and temperature on the model parameters, the current study showed that light is a key factor determining the algal dominance in the two ecosystems. Changes in sea-ice cover, which alters the underwater light regime, is therefore considered the most likely trigger for invertebratealgae regime shifts. A continued prolonging of the ice-free season in the Arctic is likely to occur in the upcoming years, considering the current climatic development. Thus, it is expected that macroalgal cover in shallow rocky-bottom communities will continue to increase, altering species composition and function in seasonally ice-covered arctic ecosystems.