VÄLJARSTÖD OCH HALOEFFEKTEN I PERSPEKTIV: GRUPPTRYCK OCH GEOPOLITIK En kvantitativ studie av svenska kommuner

Sammanfattning: This paper aims to study the applicable nature of the haloeffect-hypothesis, built from theories regarding ethnic competition and the group threat theory in modern day Sweden, as an answer to the growing support for political parties in western Europe that can by definition be considered right-wing and are preaching anti-immigration sentiments. Sweden is the optimal country for an analysis of this kind relating to the European level, due to its recent demographical shift and due to the rise of the Sweden Democrats in line with other, larger and more central western European countries displaying similar tendencies. Using a unique dataset set at the communal level in a linear regression analysis combined with two different variables relating to support for the political parties in question and the general attitude toward migrants, especially those of refugee status, this paper hopes to gain new insight on the evolution of the haloeffect-hypothesis by measuring its effectiveness on a level not previously seen in this field of research. The main finding from this analysis, although statistically insignificant, is the phenomenon of a “reversed” halo effect, where the tendencies described instead appear to have a negative correlation by going in the opposite direction. An interesting phenomenon where the opinion of the Sweden Democrats in the acquired data differs heavily from their gains in the 2022 elections are also observed. This trend of reversal and disparity in opinion of the Sweden Democrats differs from previous research done on just Sweden and contradicts similar studies done in other European countries, suggesting that there are more variables that need to be accounted for before the halo effect can be seen as an effective way of measuring and explaining support for these political parties across western Europe. This result also opens new possibilities for theories that might explain this differential result, such as geographical differences. The paper urges for and opens possibilities for continued research in this field.