A fossil-free Sweden in 2050, and the impact on Swedish emissions : A consumption-based scenarios approach

Sammanfattning: Sweden has the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without increasing emissions abroad. This study uses consumption-based emissions data from the PRINCE-project to show where emissions from Swedish consumption take place and how large the share of fossil fuel emissions is. Scenarios are made to compare the emission reductions from reducing the use of fossil fuels to the potential for emission reductions by changes in consumption patterns for three main consumption groups, food, buildings & construction, and transport. These three consumption groups represent 67 % of the Swedish consumption-based emissions. The results show that Sweden has limited though still significant impact on consumption-based emissions since most emissions take place outside Sweden. For the three main consumption groups, it is shown that changing consumption patterns has the same potential for reducing the emissions than completely ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden. Large differences exist between the consumption groups. Ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden would reduce emissions from food by 21 %, from buildings & construction by 50 % and from transport by 27 %. It can be concluded that if Sweden wants to lower their emissions from consumption, it is important to take measures at both national and international level. Focusing on both reducing fossil fuel use as well as changes in consumption patterns prove to be equally important and should be taken simultaneously to achieve the largest and fastest emissions reductions.