Changing Course in Turkish Foreign Policy - Explaining the Change in Turkish Foreign Policy in 2010s in the context of the Middle Eastern Security Complex

Sammanfattning: This study investigates why there is a change in Turkish foreign policy in 2010s in the context of the Middle Eastern security complex through a “before-after” comparison. The main argument of the present research is that the change in the Middle Eastern regional security complex brought by the Arab uprisings, which is perceived and mediated by the Turkish foreign policy-makers through a foreign policy decision-making process, led to changes in Turkish foreign policy. In exploring this causal mechanism, the change in Turkish foreign policy is identified as adjustment, program, and problem and goal changes according to Charles F. Hermann’s typology for foreign policy change in terms of outcomes. Then, the Regional Security Complex Theory is used as an instrumental theory to research the elements of the Middle Eastern security complex and the change in the structure. The analytical findings of the mentioned chapter demonstrate that there was internal transformation of the regional security structure through the change in the patterns of amity and enmity in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings. Lastly, a foreign policy decision-making approach which concerns identification of the foreign policy problem and decision unit dynamics is employed in order to determine the role of the Turkish foreign policy leadership and decision-making. At this point, the empirical findings suggest that Turkish foreign policy-makers perceived developments and challenges in the regional security structure as a foreign policy problem, considered strategic beliefs and objectives as fundamental, and made decision for foreign policy change through “concurrence” within the single group decision unit based on groupthink.