A process to assess fossil-free transport transition pathways and develop a sustainability roadmap for transport purchasers

Sammanfattning: Most (93%) of the greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector come from road traffic in Sweden which includes passenger and freight transport activity (Trafikverket, 2022). The aim of this thesis was to understand pathways that transport purchasers can pursue to reach the fossil-free transportation goals from manufacturing plant to customer and to develop a process for assessing a market and developing a roadmap for achieving fossil-free transportation. The research design will take an inductive approach to identify transition pathways for fossil-free transportation in Sweden. It will then follow a deductive approach based on a pre-existing theory by Turnheim & Nykvist (2019) to organize the data using pre-determined themes (Creswell et al., 2018). The approach taken in the qualitative design is a case study of Nestlé Sweden’s fossil-free transportation goal to explore how a transport purchaser can develop a roadmap for reaching fossil-free transportation by 2025 in Sweden. The chosen method of data collection was five semi structured interviews with open-ended questions with key stakeholders for Nestlé Sweden’s transition towards fossil-free transportation. Desk research was conducted to triangulate the findings from the interviews. The results identified six transition pathways: battery electric trucks, biofuels, biogas, hydrogen trucks, rail, and transport efficiency. Using the theoretical framework, each pathway was assessed based on five conditions and four potentials to realize each pathway. Biofuels are a highly compatible, ‘transient’ transition pathway but it is recommended to be complemented by biogas and electric trucks as they become more mature and affordable. Biofuels may become less available or more expensive due to potential supply constraints. Rail and transport efficiency should be used as much as possible. Hydrogen would not be a recommended transition pathway for reaching fossil-free transportation by 2025. This thesis has made some changes to the framework to better align with the needs of transport purchasers by adding a color-coding system to the framework and economic acceptability as an additional condition. This thesis provides a process for transport purchasers to understand a specific sectoral and geographic context to develop, identify, and assess transition pathways and support the development of a sustainability roadmap.