Hur används prognostisering av personalkostnader vid beslutsfattande? : En kvalitativ och kvantitativ studie som prövar variabler i prognostiseringssyfte för personalkostnader samt prognostiseringenspåverkan på humankapitalet

Sammanfattning: Background and problem The problem originates in strategic cost accounting. Because of the prevailing condition on the market today, businesses must be aware of their position in the market, their weaknesses and their strengths in order to create and keep its competitiveness. Therefore it is critical to operate strategically in every other decision. The question arises how this can be achieved. Forecasting is a commonly used tool for strategy and enables decision making but challenges accompany the use of forecasting. Forecasting requires awareness of strategy and goals, competitors and dynamic environmental factors in order to succeed. The goal of forecasting is to create the best conditions for the future. Forecasting enables planning and uncertainty can be identified which can result in better decision making. However, the future is uncertain and it is impossible to predict an exact forecast.  Purpose  The aim of the study is to investigate the importance of forecasting regarding decision making and how it can assist the development of human capital. The purpose of the study is furthermore to produce a conceptualized forecasting model for Beta. Henceforth the study also aims to examine which variables are the most useful in forecasting cost of personnel for Beta.   Method  To execute the study a composite of a qualitative and quantitative approach has been chosen. The study has been executed on the company called Beta, that has wished to remain anonymous. Beta is a corporation whose cost structure mostly consists of cost of personnel. The company has a solid and developed process for forecasting their cost of personnel. The study has been divided in the three following parts: theoretical frame of reference, empiricism and finally analysis. The theoretical frame of reference is meant to create increased knowledge of goal and strategy, forecasting, cost of personnel, key indicator and decision making process. The empirical data collection for the qualitative part of the study has consisted of semi-structured interviews with six respondents from Beta. For the quantitative part, the study has been provided data from Beta consisting of budget and results from the period 2020-2022. Finally, the theoretical frame of reference and the empirical data collection are analyzed in the analysis section. Conclusion The results of the study’s research question concluded that forecasting is critical for decision making. However, there are some difficulties within the process at Beta. The main problem is the manual process that contributes to inaccuracies and the process is time consuming. Furthermore, it can be stated that forecasting personnel costs contributes to the development of human capital through an ambition for increased competence within the workforce. The part of the study consisting of an examination of four different variables the variable growth gave satisfactory results from the three valuation criterias. Therefore, we recommend using the forecasting model based on the variable growth as a complement to the already existing process.