How Can We Understand Success and Failure in Conflict Mediation with Islamist Parties?

Sammanfattning: This thesis explores how we can understand mediation success in conflicts involving at least one islamist conflict party. Building on previous research about Islamism in conflicts and peace process contexts, and using broader theory regarding international mediation success, a theoretical framework describing mediation success with jihadists is developed. This framework is applied on two case studies: the negotiations between the United States and the Taleban, mediated and facilitated by Qatar in 2019-2020, and the negotiations between the Philippine Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) facilitated by Malaysia 2001-2014, mediated by an International Monitoring Team (IMT) 2005-2014 and an International Contact Group (ICG) 2009-2014. The study is comparative in nature, and content analysis is used to gain insight from materials ranging from official governmental documents, NGO reports, statements from jihadist organisations, podcasts with persons who were present during the talks, news articles as well as framework and comprehensive peace agreements. The findings show how mediation success should be measured in terms of both process and outcomes, and that even though a mediation effort is deemed as successful, this does not always lead to a successful end of conflict.