ECONOMIC CRISES AND CRIME : The Effects of the Great Recession on Swedish Crime Rates

Sammanfattning: This paper investigates the impact of the 2008's financial crisis on local crime rates in Sweden. I deploy a difference-in-differences approach that contrasts the changes in reported crimes between municipalities that are more or less crisis-exposed. The results show no significant effect on any crime category nor the aggregate crime rate. However, there are indications of more densely populated municipalities experiencing an increase in crimes with underlying financial incentives, although not robust. The results are similar when the effect of the Great Recession is compared to the major financial crisis that hit Sweden in the early 90s, suggesting that economic crises do not cause any reactions in crimes. One explanation could be the increase in social grants recipients and the participation in labour market programmes. Both of which cushions the fall in income and reduces criminal motivation. The results appear robust for a variety of alternative severity measures. Potential spillovers between adjacent municipalities do not seem to be a threat as the results are similar for county-level regressions. Overall, the findings in this paper point towards the number of reported crimes being unaffected by the crisis exposure measured as the employment change and change in retail sales.