Sökning: "probabilistic forecasting"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 13 uppsatser innehållade orden probabilistic forecasting.

1. 1. Towards a Stochastic Operation of Switzerland’s Power Grid

   Master-uppsats, KTH/Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS)

   Författare :Alban Maury; [2023]
   Nyckelord :Monte-Carlo simulations; probabilistic forecasting; copula theory; power flow analysis; Monte Carlo-simuleringar; probabilistiska prognoser; kopulateori; analys av energiflöden;

   Sammanfattning : As Europe’s power production becomes increasingly reliant on intermittent renewable energy sources, uncertainties are likely to arise in power generation plans. Similarly, with the growing prevalence of electric vehicles, electric demand is also becoming more uncertain. LÄS MER

3. 2. Conform with the Wind : Processing short-term ensemble forecasts with conformal based methods for probabilistic wind-speed forecasting

   Master-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Matematisk statistik

   Författare :Simon Althoff; [2023]
   Nyckelord :wind-speed; probabilistic; forecasts; forecasting; ensemble; post-processing; conformal prediction; conformal predictive systems; quantile regression forest; non-exchangeable; Mathematics and Statistics;

   Sammanfattning : Forecasting wind has always been an interesting subject, and as large parts of the world are relying more on wind for power production it is becoming even more important to have reliable forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts, where distributions are predicted in contrast to deterministic forecasts, are impor- tant for informed decision making. LÄS MER

4. 3. Probabilistic Forecasting through Reformer Conditioned Normalizing Flows

   Master-uppsats, KTH/Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS)

   Författare :Samuel Norling; [2022]
   Nyckelord :;

   Sammanfattning : Forecasts are essential for human decision-making in several fields, such as weather forecasts, retail prices, or stock predictions. Recently the Transformer neural network, commonly used for sequence-to-sequence tasks, has shown great potential in achieving state-of-the-art forecasting results when combined with density estimations models such as Autoregressive Flows. LÄS MER

5. 4. A Comparison of Statistical Methods to Generate Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts for Wind Power Production Purposes in Iceland

   Master-uppsats, Uppsala universitet/Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära

   Författare :Arnór Tumi Jóhannsson; [2022]
   Nyckelord :Wind power; Iceland; Atmospheric Boundary Layer; atmospheric stability; probabilistic forecasting; Machine Learning; Quantile Regression Forest; Vindkraft; Island; gränsskikt; atmosfärisk stabilitet; probabilistisk prognos; Machine Learning; Quantile Regression Forest;

   Sammanfattning : Accurate forecasts of wind speed and power production are of great value for wind power producers. In Southwest Iceland, wind power installations are being planned by various entities. LÄS MER

7. 5. Probabilistic Forecast of Time Series with Transformers and Normalizing Flows

   Master-uppsats, Uppsala universitet/Institutionen för informationsteknologi

   Författare :Seema Negi; [2021]
   Nyckelord :;

   Sammanfattning : Today, machine learning has many applications and is used in different fields and industries. One of its applications is demand forecasting. Future demands play a vital role in any industry. It can help the organization from planning to making the stock levels available to the customer when required. LÄS MER