To Trust or Not to Trust in National Climate Policy : A Quantiative Macro-Analysis on The Role of Social- and Political Trust in Determining National Policy Outcomes of Climate Taxation

Sammanfattning: This thesis examines the role of aggregated mean levels of Social Trust and Political Trust in national climate policy outcomes of Climate Taxation. The aim of the study is to contribute with the first quantitative macro-level comparative study of how Social Trust and three different forms of Political Trust1, the independent variables, affect national climate policy outcomes of Climate Tax Revenue, the dependent variable. In pursuit of this aim the study utilise fixed effects regression models based on bi-annual Time-Series-Cross-Sectional data of 24 OECD countries over 12 years. To operationalise the independent variables the study draws on individual-level survey-data from the European Social Survey Round 2-7 (2004-2014) and to operationalise the dependent variable the study uses tax revenue from Energy and Transports from the OECD-database Policy Instruments for the Environment.  The theoretical framework draws on behavioural approaches to social dilemmas in theorising that Social- and Political Trust facilitates cooperation and lowers transaction costs in order to overcome Social Dilemmas based on separate mechanisms of Networks and Institutional Safeguards. The study finds significant evidence for two of its hypotheses, as higher levels of Social Trust is correlated positively with higher Climate Taxes, and higher levels of Trust in International Organisations correlate negatively with Climate Taxes. Moreover, the study finds significant but contradictory evidence concerning two of its hypotheses, as higher levels of Trust in Political Institutions and Trust in Implementing Authorities correlate negatively with Climate Taxes. However, there are some indications that the assumption of no perfect multicollinearity does not hold for the fixed effects regression model and as such the results could be compromised.  To the knowledge of the author, this thesis outlines the first macro-level comparative study on the role of Social- and Political Trust in determining national climate policy outcomes of Climate Taxation that are generalisable in an OECD-country context. Future research is encouraged to scrutinise these preliminary findings in comparative analysis of both OECD and non-OECD countries.