Hushållsskuldsättningens inverkan på konsumtionen : En tidsserieanalys över skuldackumulation och dess inverkan på konsumtionen

Sammanfattning: Background: As a result of financial liberalization and innovations, households now have access to cheap (mortgage) credit and are able to spend money, to pay it back later in life. With the low interest levels, debt level of households are rising to an alarming rate. In Sweden the debt to income ratio has risen from 90% in the beginning of the 1990s to 170% in 2010. There is a growing concern from several financial institutions regarding the debt level. The concern stems from the latest research on its effects on the general economy. The studies on the subject concludes that a high debt level can be an ignition of financial crises. The debts effect on consumption however, is ambiguous. Studies presents that high debt level can raise the consumption, but the relationship depends on whether the house prices rise, i.e. the consumption growth depends on a wealth effect. When the prospects of the general economy fails to remain positive the growth in consumption stagnates and during recessions consumption levels drops dramatically, which in turn deepens and prolongs the crisis. Purpose: The scope of the study is to examine the accumulation of debt and its effects on consumption. In light of the debt growth among Swedish households, and the rising prices of houses it is of importance to clarify in how debt growth affects the consumption. Method: To examine the growth in consumption and debt, a time-series analysis is applied. The period consists of quarterly observations between 1995 and 2013. Before being able to run the OLS, tests for stationarity and cointegration is required. The tests shows that stationarity is found at the first difference, and a cointegration between the variables at the original form of the data. As lagged variables is used, an autocorrelation test is needed. Positive autocorrelation is found in model four and five. The result of the test on the other models are either inconclusive or free from autocorrelation. Conclusion: A positive relation between debt and consumption can be found, however when a delay of the debt variable is included a somewhat negative relation appears. Thus, the results of the previous studies in the can be confirmed. The study, however shows that the negative impact of debt reveals itself earlier than what the previous studies found.