A stakeholder-based analysis of potential photovoltaic systems’ contributions within the German government’s capacity addition plans to 2030

Sammanfattning: The ongoing energy transition in Germany foresees significant increases in the share of renewable energies in the country’s electricity mix until 2030. A share of 80% is targeted and photovoltaics should have a major contribution with a total capacity of 215 Gigawatts aimed to be installed. Since the beginning of the energy transition in Germany, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) has played a key role with its regulations and support measures. The latest amendment of the EEG in January 2023 includes updated capacity addition targets and regulatory measures. In recent years, the solar branch in Germany has experienced growth after a period of drought from 2013 to 2017. The governmental plans are the basis to enable further growth, but challenges and uncertainties remain if the targets can be reached under the present and anticipated future constraints. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of the capacity addition targets for photovoltaics and outlines the potential contribution of different photovoltaics system types within the installation plans. Through the conduction of semi-structured interviews with different stakeholders of the solar branch in Germany, a large variety of knowledge, experiences, perspectives and assessments is combined to theory which provides answers to the research questions. The results of the data analyses show, that the governmental targets are theoretically feasible but it is doubtful whether they will be reached in practice. Two of the main challenges which will need to be overcome are lacking installation capacities in form of skilled workers and hindering bureaucratic processes regarding planning, approvals, operations and accounting of photovoltaics plants. Moreover, the results indicate that the share of large-scale systems should increase, as scale-effects make them more cost-efficient and more capacity can be installed in the same amount of time. Most of these systems will be ground-mounted, but industrial roof-top systems will also contribute to a certain extent. Furthermore, integrated photovoltaic applications will increase in importance, due to the scarcity of areas and potential synergies. However, most of the stakeholders do not see a major contribution of such systems until 2030, as costs are too high, specific regulations are missing and market awareness is still low. Despite the dominance of large-scale systems, the segment of residential roof-top photovoltaic systems also has a high potential and consumers will want to produce their own electricity due to high energy prices and supply uncertainties.