Hur påverkades Ukrainas bilaterala exportflöden av kriget i Ukraina? En undersökning med gravitationsmodellen för handel

Sammanfattning: This Bachelor’s thesis consists of an empirical study using a gravity regression model to determine if Ukrainian bilateral export flows were affected by the 2014 war through an increase in political and social risk functioning as trade resistance. There is an empirical research gap on this issue that this thesis attempts to mitigate. The study was conducted using PPML with fixed effects to solve the issue with unobserved trade can be problematic with a traditional OLS. Observations for the study consists of all bilateral export flows 2013 and 2015 for Ukraine and the control group consisting of Armenia and Belarus. The regression failed to show a significant effect of increased trade resistance due to the conflict and therefore further research on this subject is necessary.